Recession Already Here?

Usually when there is a recession, economists are the last one to find out. But David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, says we may already be there. I tend to agree with him. Looking at all the consumer data, it seems they are tapped out. And with no Equity or equity loans, no more housing ATM.

Wholesale inventories are rising faster than economists had expected. It rose .8 percent in September compared to .2 that analysts had expected. It's a 5.2% increase from year ago. August was also revised up .6%.

The American consumer has been pronounced dead too many times before. So it's hard to believe unless we actually see it. But from the numbers and previous posts on credit data, it would be hard to see if consumers can revive the economy this time.

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1246297620071112?pageNumber=3


Here is a quote from US Census Bureau

Inventories. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $404.5 billion at the end of September, up 0.8 percent (+/-0.3%) from the revised August level and were up 5.2 percent (+/-1.8%) from a year ago.The August preliminary estimate was revised upward $2.3 billion, or 0.6 percent. End-of-month inventories of durable goods were up 0.7 percent (+/-0.5%) from last month and were up 1.3 percent (+/-2.3%)* from last September. Inventories of computer and computer peripheral equipment and software were up 2.0 percent from last month. End-of-month inventories of nondurable goods increased 1.0 percent (+/-0.5%) from August and were up 12.2 percent (+/-3.6%) compared to last September. Inventories of farm product raw materials were up 9.6 percent from last month.