Thursday, June 19, 2008

Unemployment & Philadelphia Fed

Unemployment & Philadelphia Fed

The jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 381,000. Analysts were forecasting for 375,000 new claims. While these numbers are not as bad as the last recession, when the claims averaged 416K, they are slowly creeping upwards.

Remember the last recession was a business led recession where this recession is a consumer (and credit) led recession.

But as we have said before, the job market and interest rates are the key to housing. Interest rates have started creeping up as expectations for inflations are going higher (despite what the fed and the numbers might tell you). It could get even uglier if the job market worsens or interest rates start creeping even higher. And if both hit at the same time? Well, let's not even go there.

In other news, the Philadalphia Fed said it's factory activity index was at -17.1 in June vs. 15.6 in May. The Leading Economic Indicators Index, rose .1 percent.

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