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Monday, January 28, 2008

Housing bottom?

We have seen this before.  Once again, many analysts are this the bottom.  Here is an example
 
"Better affordability, driven by lower home prices and mortgage rates, will likely help to spur sales activity in coming months," wrote Banc of America analyst Daniel Oppenheim.
 
Time has proven Citi Investment Research analyst Stephen Kim wrong.  Now here is another analyst calling housing bottom.  With all the problems we have been seeing, it is going to be a while before we can even start talking about a recovery.  Mortgages are now harder to get, foreclosures are on the rise, and if the job market tanks, then all bets are off.  I found it good time to short HOV and BZH through options.  Only time will tell if Mr. Oppenheim is right.
 
Another factor people have been talking about is the fact that the housing issues have been on MSM (latest example was 60 minutes yesterday).  Yes, we have been seeing so much stuff in MSM about housing.  But this market is a long way from bottom. 
 
Let's wait and see if this is indeed the bottom of housing.

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